An AI proposer is wrong a few percent of the time, but UMA pays a winning disputer only half the bond it risks — so the break-even belief is two-thirds, not half. Every category's base error rate sits deep in the no-dispute zone; raise the reward and the threshold slides left.
AI agents now resolve most prediction markets straight off the web — UMA's bot hits 99.3% on sports and 72% on mention markets. The optimistic oracle's dispute game is the backstop, but it only catches errors someone is paid to catch. The numbers, and the silent-settlement gap.