When the Graph Misleads: GNNs vs. Gradient-Boosted Trees in On-Chain Fraud Detection
The Elliptic benchmark made GNNs the default for on-chain AML. A 2026 leakage-free re-evaluation flips the script: random forests win by 13 F1 points, randomly rewired edges beat the real graph, and every model falls off a cliff at time step 43.
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