ETH's 3.46% daily volatility buries a 0.1% trading edge so deeply that on-chain P&L needs 4,600 trades — 230 days — before you can tell skill from luck at 95% confidence. Process rewards fix it in 23.
LLMs collude in on-chain auctions even when written rules forbid it — only enforceable, automatic penalties slash severe collusion from 50% to 5.6%. Here's how governance graphs make that concrete.
A flash loan gives an AI agent $1M with no collateral — and demands it back plus 0.05% before the block ends. The atomic callback constraint is both what makes flash loans safe and what forces an agent to solve its entire strategy before touching the chain.
An MCP tool's description is trusted context the user never sees. Hide an instruction there and a wallet-signing agent will route your USDC to an attacker. MCPTox: the best-aligned model still refused under 3% of these attacks — so the defense can't live in the model.
An LLM agent that writes its own working smart-contract exploit isn't hypothetical: A1 hits 63% on real exploited contracts and once pulled $8.59M from a single bug. The economics are the story — at a few dollars a scan, attackers profit at a tenth the contract value defenders need.
A DeFi liquidation mints a fixed prize, and for years it went to whoever won the gas war, not the protocol. Aave's own data shows Chainlink SVR routing $675M of liquidations and clawing ~$16M back. Inside the recapture-auction mechanics — SVR, Oval, API3 — and what they don't fix.
Virtuals' Agent Commerce Protocol sells an independent evaluator as the thing that makes agents trust each other's work. We read 62,882 jobs off Base — and in a 30-job sample, every one let the buyer grade itself. Not one used a third party.
Olas turned an off-chain AI task into an on-chain contract: 2.1M requests across 100 mechs, a 60-300s priority window, and a Karma ledger that docks no-shows. We read the marketplace off Gnosis and dissect its crypto-economic SLA.
Wire an LLM into a Governor contract and the proposal text becomes the attack surface. A frozen-weights ablation finds the twist: turning on deliberation drops adversarial robustness from 100% to 68.5% — and the 226s it takes to think is itself extractable value.
Most 'on-chain AI' keeps the model off-chain and posts a proof. But you can also just run the forward pass in Solidity. We do the gas math — ~106k gas per weight, an MNIST net that needs 180 Ethereum blocks — and find the thin band of models that fit.
Story raised $140M to make IP programmable for the AI era. We read its chain: 6.46M registered IP assets, 230,300 licenses ever minted, one week of royalties totaling $10 — plus the LAP/LRP royalty math and the precompile at 0x0101 that computes the graph.
An agent holding your raw key is one prompt injection from total loss — and 97% of early EIP-7702 delegations went to drainer sweepers. We read the sweeper's source off the chain, dissect a real 35.97-USDC-a-day spend permission on Base, and do the blast-radius math.